This is the 4th year Peak Re collaborates with the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) to present the forecast of the tropical cyclone activities over the Western North Pacific (NWP) basin and South China Sea (SCS). The information assists the insurance industry to better quantify and manage risks.
The first 2018 seasonal forecast predicts that the activities in 2018 season will be slightly above the 1981-2010 norm for cyclone genesis, in terms of total landfalls over China, and impact on South China. It also forecast that 26-28 tropical storms or stronger tropical cyclones are expected to form over the Western North Pacific Basin (WNP) and the South China Sea (SCS) (Table 1), which the activity level is above the norm.
In 2018, normal activity is expected for cyclones impacting China as a whole; while activity slightly below normal is expected for cyclones impacting Eastern China. Overall, above average activity is forecast to affect Southern China. 2018 follows a weak La Niña event year which started in the autumn of 2017. Current sea- surface-temperature (SST) is returning to neutral status. Various climate models have predicted the neutral SST status will last until summer 2018. La Niña decay years in the historic record show a higher recurrence rate of above normal tropical cyclone formation.
The climate situation is constantly changing. Climate research indicated the intensity of 2017 Autumn La Niña event is decreasing and is expected to return to neutral by late spring or early summer. Most climate models predict SSTs over eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remaining neutral during the summer of 2018. (Fig 1).
As a result of the neutral status over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, above normal activity is expected for tropical cyclone formation over the basin. Normal activity is forecast for tropical cyclone impacting South China while below normal activity is expected for tropical cyclone impacting east China. Moreover, occurrence of stronger events is expected to be below average.
Peak Re’s recent forecast is based on prior observations and subjected to the uncertainties in the climate outlook. We will release another update on the seasonal forecasting in August to capture the latest atmospheric environment conditions.
Peak Re recognising the importance of the tropical cyclones information, tracks and analyses typhoon activities on its online platform at www.peak-re.com/tcat, which was created with tropical typhoon data provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute.
